NEW DELHI: With 7 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. RCB, GT and SRH have now qualified. RR is best placed among the others followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but have slim chances. There are now 128 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the five remaining in the race. We look at the probabilities:
- RCB are now sure to qualify and to at least finish tied for no.1 in terms of points. Their worst case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH
- SRH’s win over CSK on Monday means that both SRH and GT have qualified and for both the chances of at least being tied for the second spot are a healthy 75%
- RR have a 43.8% chance of ending up among the top four on points and they could still end up in a three-way tie for second spot with SRH and GT, but there’s only a 6.3% chance of that
- PBKS can at best finish sole fourth (28.1% chance) or tie for fourth spot with KKR (10.9%)
- KKR’s chances of making the last four singly or jointly are now at 20.3% and if they do tie for the last slot it will be with PBKS
- DC’s chances of making the last four singly or jointly are now at 18.8%. Their best case is sole fourth (3.1%)
- CSK’s best case scenario after Monday’s loss are tied fourth with RR or DC or both and even that is only a 14.1% chance
How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 128 possible combinations of results remaining with 7 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finish at no.1 on points in all 128 possible combinations of match outcomes, in some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.
