After 68 matches, 25,105 runs and 793 wickets, the league stage of IPL 2026 will come down to one final dramatic day. One playoff spot remains. Three teams are still alive. And by Sunday night, two dreams will end, while one will carry forward into the playoffs.At the top, Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Gujarat Titans have already sealed the top two spots and will face off in Qualifier 1 after both finished on 18 points. Sunrisers Hyderabad, who also ended on 18 points but with an inferior net run rate, are locked into third place and will now await their Eliminator opponents.That fourth and final playoff berth is still undecided. And the fate of it rests on Super Sunday.Two matches remain:
Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai IndiansKolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals
Current points:
- PBKS – 15 points (all matches done)
- RR – 14 points (1 match left vs MI)
- KKR – 13 points (1 match left vs DC)
Watching nervously from home will be the Punjab Kings, whose league stage campaign is already over after finishing with 15 points from 14 matches. For now, PBKS occupy the fourth place provisionally, but their qualification fate is no longer in their own hands.
Punjab Kings (PBKS) qualify if…
- RR lose to MI
- If KKR lose or match is washed out – PBKS qualify outright
- If KKR beat DC in a close encounter – PBKS edge KKR on NRR
RR and KKR can still snatch the spot away. The equations are straightforward, at least initially.
Rajasthan Royals (RR) qualify if…
That takes RR to 16 points, automatically above PBKS (15) and KKR’s maximum possible tally (15). No NRR calculations needed.KKR enter the final day on 13 points and can only get to 15 with a win over DC. But even if they do, that may not be enough. Their current NRR of +0.011 is significantly behind PBKS’ +0.309, meaning KKR need not just a win, but a massive one.If KKR bat first, they will likely need a victory margin of around 76 runs or more to leapfrog PBKS on net run rate. If KKR chase, the requirement becomes even steeper in terms of scoring rate. Depending on the target, KKR would likely need to complete the chase around the 12-over mark.
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) qualify only if:
- RR lose to MI
- And KKR beat DC by enough margin to surpass PBKS on NRR.
KKR would need a win by 76+ runs to take their NRR past PBKS. If KKR chase successfully, KKR would need an extremely rapid chase: roughly around the 12-over mark.If KKR bat first
| KKR score batting first | DC score | Winning margin needed |
|---|---|---|
| 160 | 82 or lower | 78 runs |
| 180 | 103 or lower | 77 runs |
| 200 | 123 or lower | 77 runs |
| 220 | 144 or lower | 76 runs |
| 240 | 165 or lower | 76 runs |
If KKR chase successfully
| Target | KKR must chase it in |
|---|---|
| 140–160 | within 12 overs |
| 161–180 | within 12.1 overs |
| 181–200 | within 12.1 overs |
| 201–220 | within 12.2 overs |
| 221–240 | within 12.3 overs |
If RR beat MI in the afternoon clash, the playoff race ends immediately. RR become the fourth qualifier, and the evening game between KKR and DC becomes irrelevant to qualification.But if MI upset RR, Eden Gardens will host a virtual knockout. PBKS will suddenly become Delhi Capitals supporters for the night, hoping DC either win outright or avoid a crushing defeat.KKR, meanwhile, will know exactly what they need by the time they walk onto the field.One final day. Two matches. Three contenders. One remaining seat in the playoffs.
