By Steven ErlangerThe Islamic Republic of Iran’s first priority is to survive. To do that, its leaders will want to drive up the cost of the war for President Trump – in terms of American casualties, costs and inflation – to try to persuade him to declare victory and go home. Faced with the overwhelming firepower of the US and Israel, analysts say, Iran is working to enlarge the battlefield from its own territory to the broader region. The goals are to damage oil and gas infrastructure in neighbouring countries, shut the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and curtail air traffic – all to disrupt the economies of the Persian Gulf and drive up global energy prices and inflation. Iran will also be trying to exhaust the number of expensive missile interceptors held by its enemies.
“The war has become a test of wills and stamina,” said Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “Iran is facing qualitatively superior militaries, so the strategy is to test their will by expanding the battlefield, complicating the war and increasing the danger to the world economy.” The strategy is not complicated.Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, said, “The Iranians want to spread the pain as much as they can, regardless of the cost to themselves and burned relations with their neighbours, hoping to create enough opposition to the war to compel President Trump to back off.” “For the Islamic Republic,” he added, “survival is a victory, even if it is a pyrrhic one.” The plan is so-called asymmetric endurance, accepting initial damage to preserve the ability to escalate when Israeli, American and Persian Gulf air defences are stretched thin. Already, US and even some European bases and embassies have been attacked, six American troops have been killed and three planes shot down. Hezbollah has entered the war, and the Persian Gulf countries are anxious and running out of expensive interceptors used against Iranian drones. Saudi and Qatari energy installations have been struck. Oil and gas prices have shot up and shipping has practically stopped through the Strait of Hormuz.Ali Larijani, secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, claimed on social media on Monday that Iran, “unlike the US, has prepared itself for a long war,” including plans for gradual escalation and expansion of the battlefield.Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst, called the conflict “a race against time.” Israel, the US and their allies are trying to destroy missiles, launchers and communication nodes as quickly as possible, he said, so that advanced Iranian missiles cannot easily be launched.Even the heavily armed Israel, toward the end of the 12-day war against Iran in June, had to limit its use of interceptors, allowing some Iranian missiles to land if they were not deemed to be close to key sites or cities. If Iran’s strategy is clear, so are the risks. And those are already coming into view.Analysts say, that the US is encouraging Iranian minorities, like the Kurds and the Baluchis, to rise up against govt, bombing police and army positions in those territories, hoping to create at least the start of a popular uprising. Although Iran has attacked Persian Gulf countries, Tehran has so far failed to drive a wedge between them and Washington.As ever, it is hard to know Trump’s mind, said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations, a research group. “Trump already took out Khamenei, which no other president dared to do,” she said. “He has an off-ramp if he wants.”Matthew Kroenig, a former US defence official, agreed. Trump “is sceptical of long, drawn-out military campaigns” and could be satisfied with a number of outcomes, including the Venezuela model, he said. “They’ve achieved several of their objectives.”
