Is Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal running out?The Middle East remains on edge after US President Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion targeted Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, killing long-time Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering a wave of retaliation from Tehran across the region.Since then, Iran has launched missile and drone strikes against US military bases, Israel and several Gulf countries. But a new report suggests Tehran’s most powerful weapon, its ballistic missile force, may already be under severe strain.
According to a report by the US-based think tank Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), US and Israeli strikes have sharply reduced Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the current war.
Missile attacks fall sharply
JINSA said Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped by about 90 percent since the start of the conflict. Attacks targeting Israel alone have fallen by around 88 percent.The report also noted that Iran fired more missiles on the first day of Israel’s earlier Operation Rising Lion of last year than it did during the first five days of the current war combined.US Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion have reduced Iran’s daily missile fire nearly three times faster than during the 2025 conflict, the think tank said.
Launchers becoming the weak link
A major reason for the decline is the destruction of missile launchers. JINSA estimates that around 75 percent of Iran’s launch capacity has been destroyed in a short period.Launchers have become the main bottleneck in Iran’s missile operations. Every time Iran launches missiles, US and Israeli forces get another chance to locate and destroy the remaining launch systems.As a result, Iran has shifted from large missile barrages to smaller and less frequent attacks.
Stockpiles under pressure
Iran entered the war with significant missile reserves — roughly 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and between 6,000 and 8,000 short-range missiles used against regional targets.However, ongoing strikes have destroyed many missiles and disrupted the logistics needed to move them from storage to launch sites.Losses of medium-range missiles are particularly damaging because these systems were designed specifically to target Israel and cannot easily be replaced by shorter-range weapons.JINSA said that at the current rate of losses, Iran could lose much of its ability to fire these missiles at Israel within days to a week.
Strategy shifts toward Gulf targets
The report also noted that Iran has spread its attacks across the region rather than focusing only on Israel. By targeting Gulf countries as well, Tehran may be trying to increase pressure on US allies and expand the conflict’s political impact.This approach also requires different missiles — longer-range systems for Israel and shorter-range missiles for Gulf states.
Drones and proxies likely next
With its missile launch capacity shrinking, Iran is expected to increasingly rely on drones and allied proxy groups.Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen could play a larger role in attacks on Israel, US forces and Gulf countries.JINSA said Iran may still attempt occasional missile strikes or even a one-time large barrage. But such an attack would quickly exhaust its remaining launchers.Overall, the report concludes that Iran’s missile campaign is likely to continue shrinking as US and Israeli strikes destroy launchers and disrupt supply lines — forcing Tehran to rely more on drones and proxy warfare to keep pressure on its adversaries.
