NEW DELHI: Two years ago, when Dommaraju Gukesh stormed the Candidates in Toronto, the chess world called it a miracle. By the time he dismantled Ding Liren in Singapore to become the youngest-ever World Champion, that “miracle” had become something else entirely, more like a seismic shift.Yet, as the marathon to find his next challenger begins this Saturday in Cyprus, a curious silence hangs over the Indian camp.Despite Gukesh’s own recent admission that he would not mind an all-Indian matchup against R Praggnanandhaa for the title, the pre-tournament buzz indicates that Indians are not the leading favourites in both open and women’s categories.The American wall: Why Nakamura and Caruana leadThe primary reason for the tempered expectations lies in the sheer mathematical dominance of the American duo, World No. 2 Hikaru Nakamura and World No. 3 Fabiano Caruana.In an era of teenage phenoms, the veterans have recalibrated. Nakamura, at 38, remains a freak of nature, maintaining a 2800-plus rating while balancing a full-time streaming career.
“One cannot rule out Nakamura’s best chances,” veteran Grandmaster Pravin Thipsay told TimesofIndia.com. “He is the only player keeping above 2800 all these years. Nakamura is a serious contender mainly because of his cleverness in specific opening preparations against specific players.”Caruana, 33, presents a different kind of hurdle with his “unbeatable” factor.“He is very solid,” Thipsay noted. “He doesn’t necessarily wish to win in the opening itself, but he’s always on solid ground. It’s possible Caruana ends up unbeaten in the event. The only problem he faces is being able to score heavily enough.”The Pragg puzzleWhile the world has been waiting for Praggnanandhaa to take the final leap, recent months have represented a period of consolidation rather than conquest. After a blistering run in the first half of 2025, the Chennai prodigy found the air slightly thinner at the very top during the latter half of the year. And his start to 2026 hasn’t carried much positivity either.“Praggnanandhaa had very good years, but recently, he has not been really good,” Thipsay observed. To win the Candidates, Pragg must revert to his roots as a cold-blooded attacker.
“He must concentrate on getting the initiative with the white pieces. His strength is mainly attack against the enemy king… he’s good at tactics and combinations,” the veteran GM added.The challenge for the 20-year-old Indian is tactical bravery. In a field that includes Wei Yi and the unpredictable Javokhir Sindarov, who Thipsay warns “may cause upsets but has a habit of making simple mistakes”, Praggnanandhaa cannot afford to play for safe draws if he wants to set up that dream all-Indian World Championship match.The Women’s field: Divya Deshmukh’s edgeIf the Open section feels like a climb, the Women’s Candidates offers a brighter silver lining. With the withdrawal of the legendary Koneru Humpy due to safety concerns in West Asia, the spotlight has shifted entirely to the 20-year-old World Cup winner, Divya Deshmukh, and 24-year-old Vaishali Rameshbabu, winner of the 2025 Women’s Grand Swiss.Despite being rated lower than top seed Zhu Jiner, Divya carries a psychological edge that most female players lack, as she regularly hunts in the Open (dominated by men) circuit.
“The wisdom Divya shows in playing men’s events has made her very strong against the best defence,” Thipsay remarked. “When you’re playing a strong field, you should be able to tackle good defence. In the past, no Indian except Humpy had ever beaten Chinese players in a match, but 2025 was different. Divya and Humpy defeated four Chinese players among themselves.”Thipsay believes the title is a straight shootout: “I would say the top position is expecting to go to either Zhu Jiner or Divya. Vaishali has an outside chance, but probably only for second or third,” he added.As the clocks start on Saturday, the narrative is clear. The “Gukesh effect” has made the world wary of Indian prodigies, but it has also forced the old guard to sharpen their steel.For Nakamura and Caruana, this is likely their final realistic shot at a World Championship match before the door is bolted shut by the next generation.For India, the task is to prove that Gukesh wasn’t a standalone miracle, but the first of many.Whether Praggnanandhaa can find his attacking initiative or Divya can dismantle the Chinese wall, the next three weeks in Cyprus will decide if the World Championship remains an internal Indian affair or a global tug-of-war.
