In a remote Chinese desert, a vast military complex is taking shape that some security scholars say appears built to ensure no American first strike on China’s nuclear arsenal could reliably knock out Beijing’s ability to hit back. China’s nuclear missiles can already reach any American city. Now, satellite images show Beijing is building a sprawling web of launch pads, bunkers and communications nodes near the isolated nuclear silos that hold the Chinese military’s longest-range missiles.The ability to protect its desert silos is key to China’s stated goal of forging a minimal but credible nuclear deterrent – a policy grounded in the capacity to retaliate if it is struck first. While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can fire nuclear weapons from submarines and aircraft, the silo fields in the northwestern Xinjiang region and Gansu province are the core of its nuclear forces.A cornerstone of China’s doctrine is its “no first use” policy. Xi this month warned US President Donald Trump that mishandling of their countries’ disagreements over Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, could lead them to a “dangerous place”.Octagons in desertThe new desert infrastructure is centred on two octagon-shaped installations built over the past six years in eastern Xinjiang. Both are southwest of the Hami nuclear silo fields – one is about 140 kilometres away, the other some 230 kilometres. Exercises involving large military vehicles occurred around the northern octagon this month and during April, the images show.Satellite images show the octagon structures contain housing for personnel and large military vehicles. They are flanked by armoured bunkers and fortified weapons-storage areas, as well as airfields and railheads that link the octagons to the Hami silos.Five security scholars interviewed by Reuters agreed the infrastructure broadly could support China’s nuclear programme, as well as other military purposes. But they cautioned that key details remain unknown – including the weapons China might deploy at the launch pads and whether the octagon structures house truck-mounted ballistic missiles or facilities for fitting nuclear warheads.US officials and arms-control analysts say China is expanding and improving its nuclear weapons capabilities faster than any other nation. The latest Pentagon report on China’s military modernisation says the country’s warhead production has slowed but it is on track to field 1,000 warheads by 2030. The Dec report estimated China is likely to have loaded 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) across its three main silo fields.China has also been strengthening its early-warning system, according to US officials. The system can detect an incoming ICBM within 90 seconds of launch and alert a command centre within three to four minutes, according to the Pentagon – sufficient time for China to fire its own silo-based weapons before they are hit.Defence sets China apartSignificantly, each octagon sits at the core of a network of dirt roads and conduits that stretch far into the desert. These routes connect to the concrete pads. The pads could be used to deploy mobile air-defence missiles, electronic warfare nodes or, from some of the larger ones, road-mobile ICBM launchers, three security scholars said. Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project, said while it was difficult to conclude how the various installations would be used, “it is hard to rule anything out”.The extent of the defensive network near its silos potentially sets China apart from the other major nuclear powers. The Unites States and Russia – whose warhead stockpiles and deployed weapons far exceed Beijing’s – rely on a combination of sheer numbers of silos, their relative isolation and hardened construction to deter a first strike, rather than extensive missile defence, Kristensen said. “I’ve never seen anything quite like it,” Kristensen said. “It’s an extraordinary effort.”(This is a Reuters story)
